Why change is hard: Understanding Predictive Coding

A few days ago, I was re-watching Shameless on Netflix. If you’ve seen it, you know it’s brilliantly written. It's messy, chaotic, heartbreaking, clever, and painfully real. The characters are flawed, funny, intelligent in their own ways, and deeply human.

But I’ll be honest, as much as I love the storytelling, the characters frustrate me. Why? Because throughout the show, so many of them rise, only to immediately unravel. And one character in particular captures this pattern perfectly: Philip Gallagher

The Philip Gallagher Pattern

Image Source: Showtime / Shameless (for editorial discussion only)

In the show, Phillip (Lip) is the kind of character you root for.

He’s brilliant, easily the smartest person in the room. He earns his way into an excellent university. For him, this is the path out, a life completely different from the poverty, chaos, and addiction he grew up in.

And just when you think

everything begins to line up, he spirals.

He drinks. He sabotages relationships. He gets himself expelled over avoidable decisions.

It’s frustrating because you can see who he could be… and who he keeps choosing instead. And it’s not just him!

Most characters in the show follow this pattern:

Rise → Hope → Self-destruct → Repeat.

This bothered me enough that I went down a bit of a rabbit hole.

Why do so many people do this in real life too- rise, then crash back into the same old chaos?

That’s when I came across a concept in neuroscience that suddenly made the whole thing click:

Predictive Coding: The Brain’s “Better the Devil You Know” System

Predictive coding describes how the brain uses past experience to predict how you should respond in the present. And here’s the line that stayed with me:

"Your brain’s default isn’t choosing what’s best, it’s choosing what’s known."

Not because you lack willpower or intelligence. But because your brain’s primary job isn’t to make you fulfilled, confident, or exceptional. Its job is to keep you safe. And to your brain, predictability feels safe. So even when growth, opportunity, or change appear, if they’re unfamiliar, they can feel threatening.

So Why Do People Repeat Old Patterns?

Someone who grew up around instability and self-destruction, like Philip Gallagher, may unconsciously believe: “This is who I am. This is how life works.”

When you've lived with a certain identity or environment long enough, chaos, doubt, or limitation can feel more “survivable” than unfamiliar opportunity, stability or success. That's why someone can be brilliant and still self-destruct. Talented but stuck. Capable but scared of the life they’ve never seen modeled.

Where This Shows Up in Real Life

You may not be in a TV drama, but predictive coding plays out in everyday life:

• Leaving a dysfunctional relationship only to choose the same dynamic again

• Earning authority at work but avoiding visibility

• Building financial stability, then sabotaging it because it feels foreign

It isn’t always logical. it looks like inconsistency. But In the nervous system, it’s self-protection.

You Can Train Your Brain to Choose Better

The Good News is that predictive coding does not need to be a life sentence. It’s a pattern, and patterns can be rewritten.

Change is not about forcing yourself into a new identity or thought process overnight. You need to retrain your brain gently, steadily, through repetition. It requires giving your brain new evidence through small, repeated new responses.

Simply put, every time you make a smaller, slightly different choice, your brain updates its internal map and thinks, “Maybe this new thing is safe too.”

That’s where change begins.

How to Start Rewriting the Pattern

If you are trying to make a mindset shift and break old patterns, here's a trick that might help. The moment you feel yourself retreating into an old behaviour, pause and ask, “Is this familiar — or is this actually right for me?” That pause alone is powerful.

Choose a Small, Different Action

You don’t need a dramatic shift, just a micro-upgrade.

For Example:

• If you always say yes, say: “I need time to think.”

• If you tend to avoid eye contact, hold it for one extra second.

• If you avoid saying what you want, state one clear preference.

  
  

Tiny changes are easy because they’re less scary and they’re repeatable. And repetition teaches the brain, “We survived. We’re okay. This new direction is allowed.” This is how unfamiliar becomes familiar.

Remind yourself, just because it feels uncomfortable, that doesn’t mean it’s wrong. The discomfort simply means You’re walking into a future your past never showed you. And that takes courage.

And finally

If you’ve ever wondered why change feels slow, or why you sometimes return to patterns you’ve outgrown, remind yourself:

• Nothing is wrong with you.

• You’re not broken.

• You’re not incapable.

• You’re not destined to repeat your past.

Your brain is simply working with what it knows.

And with every small new choice, you can teach it a new story. A story where growth feels safe. Where possibility feels familiar. Where the future isn’t something to fear, but something you’re allowed to walk into.

One small shift at a time.

If you’re exploring change, in communication, identity, or presence, I help people navigate that with clarity and intention.

xoxo

Vibhinta